Ruling Party - BJP Delhi
Key figures under monitoring • Sentiment based on social media analysis • Feb 2026
CM Rekha Gupta
Chief Minister • First Woman CM Delhi
7.8K
Mentions/7d
43%
Positive
7
Deepfakes
-5 pts
1-year mark: 43% positive (down from 58% post-election) • Gaffes, ₹0 Mahila Samriddhi, AQI chants
Vulnerabilities: "Crocodile tears" comeback from AAP, CBI clean chit narrative, water crisis
@gupta_rekha • 890K followers
Vulnerabilities: "Crocodile tears" comeback from AAP, CBI clean chit narrative, water crisis
@gupta_rekha • 890K followers
Virendra Sachdeva
Delhi BJP President
1.8K
Mentions/7d
52%
Positive
0
Deepfakes
-3 pts
Defending "clean chit is not clean character" narrative • Called AAP verdict "technical"
Focus: MCD reforms, 1-year report card defense
@Virend_Sachdeva • 180K followers
Focus: MCD reforms, 1-year report card defense
@Virend_Sachdeva • 180K followers
Manoj Tiwari
BJP MP Northeast Delhi
2.4K
Mentions/7d
48%
Positive
0
Deepfakes
-2 pts
Celebrity appeal but investment fraud FIR (Jharkhand) dragging sentiment
HPV vaccination drive with CM (Feb 28) • Purvanchali community connect
@ManojTiwariMP • 2.8M followers — Highest BJP Delhi reach
HPV vaccination drive with CM (Feb 28) • Purvanchali community connect
@ManojTiwariMP • 2.8M followers — Highest BJP Delhi reach
Ramvir Singh Bidhuri
BJP MP South Delhi
680
Mentions/7d
46%
Positive
1
Deepfakes
-1 pt
Low-profile MP South Delhi • Welcomed Okhla landfill elimination plan
@RamvirSBidhuri • 120K followers • Budget 2026-27 commentary
@RamvirSBidhuri • 120K followers • Budget 2026-27 commentary
Pravesh Verma
Delhi Cabinet Minister • PWD, Water • MLA New Delhi
1.9K
Mentions/7d
37%
Positive
2
Deepfakes
-6 pts
Kejriwal vindication contesting "giant killer" narrative • Water crisis blame
Election being challenged in Delhi HC • ₹7,212Cr dev works launched
@p_sahibsingh • 450K followers • Minister PWD & Water
Election being challenged in Delhi HC • ₹7,212Cr dev works launched
@p_sahibsingh • 450K followers • Minister PWD & Water
Harsh Malhotra
Union MoS Road Transport • MP East Delhi
580
Mentions/7d
44%
Positive
0
Deepfakes
-2 pts
Said "legal discharge is not public endorsement" on clean chit
Central govt focus • Union Budget 2026-27 commentary
@harshmalhotrabjp • 85K followers
Central govt focus • Union Budget 2026-27 commentary
@harshmalhotrabjp • 85K followers
Opposition - AAP Delhi
Lost 2025 election after 10 years • Rebuilding with "Delhi Behaal" campaign
Atishi
Former Interim CM • Leader of Opposition
6.2K
Mentions/7d
59%
Positive
0
Deepfakes
+8 pts
First woman LoP in Delhi • Leading "Delhi Behaal" campaign on Mahila Samriddhi
Key Issues: 27,000+ displaced, ₹2,500 not paid • Privileges committee controversy
@AtishiAAP • 539.6K followers
Key Issues: 27,000+ displaced, ₹2,500 not paid • Privileges committee controversy
@AtishiAAP • 539.6K followers
Arvind Kejriwal
AAP National Convenor • Former CM
14.8K
Mentions/7d
71%
Positive
0
Deepfakes
+18 pts ↑↑
CBI CLEAN CHIT (Feb 27) — "I'm not corrupt" viral moment, daring Modi for fresh elections
Key shift: Defensive → offensive. March 1 Jantar Mantar rally held — massive turnout
@ArvindKejriwal • 23.4M followers — Highest political reach in Delhi
Key shift: Defensive → offensive. March 1 Jantar Mantar rally held — massive turnout
@ArvindKejriwal • 23.4M followers — Highest political reach in Delhi
Saurabh Bharadwaj
Delhi AAP President
4.5K
Mentions/7d
56%
Positive
0
Deepfakes
+6 pts
Leading Delhi Behaal Samvad across 70 constituencies • Called BJP year "Happy Fraud Day"
Key role: 2,696 booth meetings, organized March 1 Jantar Mantar rally
@Saurabh_MLAgk • 890K followers
Key role: 2,696 booth meetings, organized March 1 Jantar Mantar rally
@Saurabh_MLAgk • 890K followers
Manish Sisodia
Senior AAP Leader • Former Deputy CM
5.1K
Mentions/7d
66%
Positive
0
Deepfakes
+14 pts ↑
CBI CLEAN CHIT (Feb 27) — Spent 17 months in jail, strongest vindication narrative
Key role: Education legacy, "proved honest" storyline
@msisodia • 6.2M followers
Key role: Education legacy, "proved honest" storyline
@msisodia • 6.2M followers
Sanjeev Jha
AAP MLA Burari • Chief Whip
1.4K
Mentions/7d
47%
Positive
0
Deepfakes
+4 pts
Marshalled out of Assembly (Jan 9) • Viral thermometer meme creator
Won re-election from Burari 2025 • AAP Chief Whip in Assembly
@SanjeevJhaAAP • 120K followers
Won re-election from Burari 2025 • AAP Chief Whip in Assembly
@SanjeevJhaAAP • 120K followers
Gopal Italia
AAP MLA Visavadar (Gujarat) • National Joint Secretary
720
Mentions/7d
42%
Positive
0
Deepfakes
+3 pts
Gujarat-focused • Won Visavadar bypoll 2025 • Media debates spokesperson
Accused BJP of "dictatorship" after Kejriwal event cancelled in Gujarat
@Gopal_Italia • 340K followers
Accused BJP of "dictatorship" after Kejriwal event cancelled in Gujarat
@Gopal_Italia • 340K followers
TWIN PRESSURE WEEK: Bijli-Paani Behaal Day 18/14 + Sheeshmahal Floor Day Mon May 5 + HC Counter-Affidavit Mon — May 2 inflection
Summer water deficit 25% — Wazirabad pond 18% • Heat power 1,200 MW shortfall — 5 transformer fires • NTPC Twin commissioning Mon May 4 (400 MW) • Sheeshmahal Assembly Floor Day Mon May 5 + privilege motion • CAG water audit HC hearing Tue May 12 • Mahila 95K women receiving Day 55 + Lakhpati 18.4K girls Day 31
Narrative Battle — May 2, 2026
Ruling vs Opposition messaging on 5 fronts • NTPC Twin + Mahila 1L + Sheeshmahal vs Bijli-Paani Behaal + CAG Water + Heat Power • Election: BJP 48 (45.81%), AAP 22 (43.55%) • If-elections-today: BJP 32 / AAP 38 (AAP +6 swing)
BJP NARRATIVE
NTPC Twin Commissioning Mon May 4 — 'Bijli-Paani Solution Online'
CM-NTPC chair MoU signed Apr 30. Mon May 4: 400 MW first power online — directly to DJB pumping infrastructure. Tue Jun 4: full 800 MW grid stabilization. CM at switch-on with BSES + Tata Power CEOs. 'Heat wave + summer demand met by new supply, not promises.' Counters Bijli-Paani Behaal frame at the inflection point. #DelhiBadalRahaHai #800MW
Sheeshmahal CAG Floor Day Mon May 5 — '₹33.66 Cr / 342% Overrun'
Day 39 of CAG narrative. Assembly Floor Day Mon May 5 — Parvesh Verma to lead with 5th press conference Sun May 3. Privilege motion against AAP MLAs prepared. PTI/ANI weekly briefing pack with CAG annexures. CM: '10 AC pe sawaal, khud 50 AC + ₹18.88 Cr interiors?' BJP's strongest anti-AAP weapon — sustained +4 trust dividend. Twin with HC counter-affidavit same day = own the news cycle.
Mahila 95K + Lakhpati 18.4K — 'Twin Women's Welfare Push'
Mahila Samriddhi Day 55: 95,000 women receiving ₹2,500/month (₹237 Cr disbursed). Target 1L by Thu May 15 (need 5K more). Lakhpati Bitiya Day 31: 18,400 girls enrolled (4,200 since Apr 26). First bikes May 15. Saheli Smart Cards 1.25L distributed. CM: 'Beneficiary-first verification — fake claims rejected, genuine women paid.' Counters AAP's '4.6% disbursed' attack with portal verification dashboard.
78 Atal Canteens — '15 Lakh Heat-Wave Meals Served'
78 Atal Canteens operational (was 71 in Feb). 15L+ meals served — heat wave relief push in power-cut zones (East, Shahdara, Rohini). 4,200+ e-buses (India's largest fleet — was 4,100). 370 Arogya Mandirs, 7L Ayushman registrations. School Fee Act enforcement. 'Delhi Badal Raha Hai — results in scorching heat, not promises in air-conditioned offices.' Maliwal-Mann photo neutralized AAP's 'BJP-AAP nexus' attack.
HC Counter-Affidavit Mon May 5 — 'CAG Audit = BJP Cleanup, Not Attack'
Counter-affidavit final draft Sun May 4 EOD; CMO sign-off + filed Mon May 5 16:00. DJB technical annexures: NRW reduction roadmap + ₹4,988 Cr loss attribution to legacy systems pre-2025. Counsel briefing — match case to NGT Yamuna 2018 precedent. 'CAG audit is BJP-commissioned cleanup of 10 years of AAP neglect, not opposition attack.' Tue May 12 hearing — DJB CEO + Law Min outside-court statement, no CM appearance.
NTPC Twin Mon
#1 INFLECTION
#1 INFLECTION
Sheeshmahal Floor Mon
Day 39 / Privilege
Day 39 / Privilege
Summer Water Day 18
Wazirabad 18%
Wazirabad 18%
Heat Power Day 14
1,200 MW gap
1,200 MW gap
CAG HC Tue May 12
Counter-Aff Mon
Counter-Aff Mon
AAP NARRATIVE
'#BijliPaaniBehaal — Day 18/14 Mein Delhi'
Combined hashtag — 5.8M impressions. AAP: 'BJP 78 dinon mein paani-bijli dono tod di.' Atishi viral video at Wazirabad pond — 8.4M reach: 'Yeh wahi pond hai jisko BJP ne February mein stabilize bola tha — aaj 18% pe.' Saurabh Bharadwaj 'Bijli-Paani Behaal Jan Samvad' in 70 constituencies. 5 transformer fires (Shahdara, Geeta Colony, Laxmi Nagar, Kondli, Mundka) = governance collapse evidence.
CAG Water Audit — 'Delhi Ka Paani Do Baar Mar Raha Hai'
HC petition Apr 14 cites CAG: raw water shortage 24%, NRW losses ₹4,988 Cr, DJB debt ₹66,595 Cr. Tue May 12 hearing. AAP: 'Sheeshmahal pe baat, Wazirabad pond bhul gaye? Delhi ka paani do baar mar raha hai — shortage + ₹66K Cr debt.' Counter-affidavit due Mon May 5. Twin pressure with Sheeshmahal Assembly Floor day. Atishi: 'Counter-affidavit nahi, citizen-affidavit chahiye.'
Mahila 9.3% in 55 Days — 'Fake Promise, Slow Disbursement'
AAP refreshed attack: '₹5,110 Cr allocated, only ₹237 Cr disbursed = 4.6%.' Sanjay Singh: 'Where is the remaining ₹4,900 Cr?' Atishi: '95K out of 10L+ eligible women — 9.3% in 55 days. Promise tha 1L women in 30 days.' Lakhpati attack: 'Ladli renamed — no new money, no new beneficiary class.' Privilege motion to be filed against BJP MLAs Mon May 5.
'Heat Wave Mein Bijli Gul' — 8-10 Hr Cuts Campaign
8-10 hour cuts in East, North East, West Delhi. AAP: 'Delhi had 24x7 power for 10 years under AAP — BJP disrupted within 78 days.' 5 transformer fires in 7 days = equipment failure narrative. Kuldeep Kumar protests at Shahdara, Geeta Colony. Congress: 'NTPC Mon ek-pranali, but transformer fires kaun roke?' AAP video: 'BJP-In-Power-Out 78 din special compilation' — 3.6M views.
'Sheeshmahal Distraction' — '₹66,595 Cr Debt Pe Baat Karo'
AAP counter-frame Sheeshmahal as distraction. Bharadwaj: 'BJP ₹33 Cr scandal pe Floor Day rakha hai but ₹66,595 Cr DJB debt pe chup hai. Priorities dekho.' Privilege motion strategy: keep BJP defending Sheeshmahal floor day while opposition pivots to summer water + heat power on social media. Saurabh: 'Asli scandal Wazirabad pond mein hai, bungalow mein nahi.'
Narrative Dominance — Who Is Winning Each Front?
Based on social media reach, media coverage, and public sentiment • Twin pressure week (Mon May 5 Floor Day + Tue May 12 HC hearing)
NTPC Twin / Power
CONTESTED — Mon flips
Sheeshmahal CAG
BJP WINNING
Summer Water Day 18
AAP WINNING
Heat Power Day 14
AAP WINNING
CAG HC May 12
CONTESTED
Mahila + Lakhpati
BJP WINNING
2030 Election Readiness Assessment
May 2 demand pressure: Summer water Day 18 + Heat power Day 14 = 'Bijli-Paani Behaal' frame • CAG audit ₹2,100Cr (HC May 12) + Sheeshmahal ₹33.66 Cr (Assembly May 5) twin pressure • Counter levers: Mahila 95K, NTPC Twin Mon May 4, 78 Atal Canteens 15L meals
Welfare Delivery
58%
Mahila Samriddhi 95K women receiving Day 55 (₹237 Cr disbursed). Lakhpati 18,400 girls Day 31. Saheli 1.25L cards.
Women sentiment: +5 since launch
Action: 1L Mahila milestone Thu May 15 + first Lakhpati bikes
Women sentiment: +5 since launch
Action: 1L Mahila milestone Thu May 15 + first Lakhpati bikes
Water & Amenities
26%
Summer water deficit 25% — Wazirabad pond critical at 43°C. CAG HC hearing May 12.
NE / N / Central / Wazirabad — 38 wards affected
Action: NTPC Twin Mon May 4 (400 MW for pumping) + counter-affidavit Mon May 5 + 1,650 tankers
NE / N / Central / Wazirabad — 38 wards affected
Action: NTPC Twin Mon May 4 (400 MW for pumping) + counter-affidavit Mon May 5 + 1,650 tankers
Women Voters
56%
Recovering — Mahila 95K + Saheli 1.25L driving +5 trust. Mann-Maliwal photo neutralized AAP attack.
Risk: water deficit hitting women hardest in NE/N
Leverage: First woman CM + 1L Mahila milestone May 15
Risk: water deficit hitting women hardest in NE/N
Leverage: First woman CM + 1L Mahila milestone May 15
Youth & Jobs
48%
-6% sentiment. Lakhpati Bitiya bridging girls but no youth employment scheme yet.
Delhi unemployment 8.0% (above national avg)
Action: Floor Day Mon May 5 — Youth Employment Mission announcement
Delhi unemployment 8.0% (above national avg)
Action: Floor Day Mon May 5 — Youth Employment Mission announcement
Infrastructure
64%
78 Atal Canteens 15L meals, 4,200+ e-buses, 370 Arogya Mandirs. NTPC Twin Mon May 4 (800 MW).
Best sector but heat-wave power cuts denting perception
Action: Amplify NTPC switch-on + Atal heat relief
Best sector but heat-wave power cuts denting perception
Action: Amplify NTPC switch-on + Atal heat relief
Safety & Law & Order
49%
Chain snatching East Delhi + transformer fires (5 in 7 days).
Shahdara, Geeta Colony, Laxmi Nagar, Kondli, Mundka
Action: Forensic audit Mon + 500 CCTV expansion + anti-snatching squads
Shahdara, Geeta Colony, Laxmi Nagar, Kondli, Mundka
Action: Forensic audit Mon + 500 CCTV expansion + anti-snatching squads
IF ELECTIONS HELD TODAY (MAY 2, 2026 — DAY 18 SUMMER WATER + HEAT POWER):
32
BJP Projected
↓ won 48
38
AAP Projected
↑ won 22
AAP +6
Lead Shift
was BJP +26
22
Swing Seats
margin < 5K
Key risk: Summer water + heat power + CAG audit converging in May. Mahila milestone May 15 + NTPC Mon May 4 are recovery levers. Swing Zones: NE Delhi (6 seats — water + power), N Delhi (4 seats — water + Wazirabad), E Delhi (4 seats — power cuts + transformer fires), W Delhi (3 seats — power + heat), Central Delhi (3 seats — water + governance), S Delhi (2 seats — heat + scheme delivery)
BUDGET SESSION WEEK: AAP Boycott + Sheeshmahal CAG + Palam Fire Fallout
AAP boycotts Budget Session • Sheeshmahal CAG ₹33.66 Cr tabled • Palam fire 9 dead — equipment failure row • Chandrawal burst 3 days dry • Kejriwal discharged Feb 27, next HC Apr 6 • Power cuts campaign launched
Opposition Strategy Monitor
AAP boycotts Budget Session (Mar 23-25) • Sheeshmahal CAG ₹33.66 Cr tabled Mar 24 • Palam fire 9 dead (Mar 19) — equipment failure row • Chandrawal burst 3 days dry • "BJP In, Power Out" power cuts campaign • Kejriwal discharged Feb 27, next HC Apr 6
Top Opposition Narratives (May 2026)
"#BijliPaaniBehaal — Day 18/14 Mein Delhi"
5.8M reach • -82%
"Sheeshmahal Day 39 — Privilege Motion May 5"
4.7M reach • -76% (Kejriwal compilation)
"#RekhaGuptaPaaniDo — Tanker Mafia Patronage"
3.2M reach • -71%
"Heat Wave Mein Bijli Gul — 8-10 Hr Cuts"
3.6M reach • -74%
"Mahila Samriddhi 9.3% in 55 Days — Fraud Scheme"
2.8M reach • -64%
"CAG Water Audit HC Petition — Hearing May 12"
2.4M reach • -68%
"Transformer Fires — Geeta Colony / Laxmi Nagar"
1.9M reach • -69%
"Lakhpati Bitiya = Ladli Renamed — No New Money"
1.4M reach • -55%
Top Opposition Amplifiers (Verified)
@ArvindKejriwal
23.4M followers • AAP Convenor • +18pts (Palam fire attack)
@maborhuddy
6.2M followers • Former Dy CM • +14pts (Budget boycott)
@BhsofficiAI (Bhagwant Mann)
4.8M followers • Punjab CM
@SanjayAzadSIn (Sanjay Singh)
1.4M followers • RS MP • Rally organizer
@Saurabh_MLAgk
890K followers • Delhi AAP President
@AtishiAAP
539.6K followers • LoP Delhi • FOB + Palam + Water
AAP Strategy: Five-Phase Escalation (Feb 2025 — May 2026)
- Phase 1 (Feb-May 2025): Regrouped after loss. Atishi became LoP.
- Phase 2 (Jun-Dec 2025): Built "Delhi Behaal" ground narrative. Booth-level Jan Samvad.
- Phase 3 (Jan-Mar 2026): Sheeshmahal CAG framing + Yamuna ammonia crisis amplification + Mar 1 anti-government rally.
- Phase 4 (Apr 2026): CAG water-audit HC petition (Apr 14) + first heat-wave attacks + "Behaal Day 26" peak.
- Phase 5 (May 2026 — NOW): Summer offensive at full velocity — "#BijliPaaniBehaal" dual crisis (5.8M impressions), Mon May 5 Sheeshmahal Day 42 privilege motion, HC water-audit hearing Tue May 12, Mahila Samriddhi "9.3% in 55 days" attack. Daily summer-suffering tours (Bharadwaj NE/N Delhi). Khatri compilations sustaining citizen-evidence frame.